There has been much speculation about whether Jesse Ventura will run for Senate. Political observers have said that a Ventura run would shake up the election, however, a primary challenge by Mike Ciresi has the potential to be far more interesting.
If Jesse Ventura runs for Senate, he can only serve to spoil the chances of victory for Democrats. Ventura will likely take a large block of Democrats and a majority of Independents. Coleman will likely take the remaining Independents and some Democrats. Coleman will lose some Republican support, but not enough to amount to any change to the election.
That leaves Franken with a weak Democratic base and little strength among Independents. It leaves Jesse with much Democratic and Independent support. And, it leaves Coleman with a solid Republican base and some Independent and Democratic support. That means Norm Coleman will be our Senator for the next six years.
If Mike Ciresi reenters the race to challenge Al Franken in the primary, it could be a very different story. Say Ciresi defeats Franken in the primary, leaving Ciresi as the Democratic challenger to Norm Coleman. Ciresi is not the wacky Ventura or the divisive Franken, nor the Republican rubber stamp Coleman. Ciresi would have full Democratic support and strong support among Independents; even some Republicans would view him as an acceptable alternative to Coleman. That amounts to victory for Democrats.
Think about it: A primary challenge by Mike Ciresi can only make Franken a stronger candidate by making Franken face his negatives early in the election. A primary challenge by Mike Ciresi may scare away spoiler Jesse Ventura. A primary challenge by Mike Ciresi would allow the Minnesotans who didn't participate in the DFL endorsement process to have a say who the DFL candidate should be. If Franken defeats Ciresi in the primary, then it is the ultimate endorsement of Franken. If Ciresi wins the primary, then it will confirm all we have written.
Think about it. It's too important to pass off.
Friday, July 11, 2008
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Another Call in...
This is the exact kind of response to Franken that we're worried about. Listen to this call in from a DFLer who's considering voting for Coleman. :(
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