Ventura For Senate? Not So Fast.

Jesse Ventura has been included in the two most recent Senate race polls. Impressively, he has polled in the mid twenties. It is clear that his entrance into the Senate race would shake things up, but do his his high polling numbers mean something else?

We think they do.

Al Franken appeals to maybe 4 out of 5 Democrats. That means 20% of Dems are looking for a different candidate. Coleman is stronger among Republicans than Franken is among Dems, but Coleman too has a gap in base support. Where are these two groups of voters turning towards? It looks like Ventura. However, they may just be turning to him because he's not Franken or Coleman, and he has no name recognition problem. Do Minnesotans really want six years of Jesse Ventura in the Senate? We think his high numbers only show the growing discontent with the two endorsed candidates.

But why isn't Ciresi polling as well as Ventura in the same polls?

The recent Survey USA poll asked "What if the three candidates on the ballot were Republican Norm Coleman, DFL candidate Mike Ciresi, and Independent candidate Jesse Ventura?" Ciresi still did better than Ventura (28% to 26%), however, they were nearly tied with a margin of error of 4.1%. Yes, Franken did better against Ventura (31% to 23%), but Franken and Ventura are household names and Franken has been campaigning for the last 4 months. Oh Yes, and Franken was endorsed by the DFL, that probably helped him also (even thought the DFL likely regrets that now).

Franken will stumble.

The support Franken has among Dems and Independents will certainly erode once the MN GOP attack machine is up and running. The issues of Franken's taxes and writing were only previews of what's to come. The voters in the middle will be unwillingly pushed to Coleman because they will be offended by Franken. Let's pretend everything goes fine for Franken and there are no more damaging stories, he will still lose. Once Ventura enters the race, the Dems will be split at least partially, ushering in six more years of Norman.

Coleman, Franken, Ciresi and Ventura?

Ventura has said we will wait until the final hour of the final day to file with FEC. Why? He's waiting to see what move Ciresi will make. If Ciresi and Ventura enter the race, it will be ugly, but Coleman will likely win. We feel that Ventura does not want to see a four man race, and that he would sit on the sidelines if Ciresi entered before him. Ventura has openly and rightfully criticized Coleman for his worthlessness (not to mention his support for the war and the fact he still thinks it was a good idea) and Ventura has criticized Franken for being a carpetbagger and joke (no comment), but he has remained silent on Ciresi. If Ciresi enters the race he will secure the voters who support Ventura, he will secure many of Franken supporters (once the MN GOP tear in Franken) and he will pull away about 15% of Republicans. It would be close, but it's the best shot we have at defeating Coleman.

The bottom line:

No Republican will vote for Franken over Coleman. Some Democrats will disaffect form Franken to Coleman. And moderates/undecideds will be turned away from Franken because of the GOP smear machine.

No Democrat will vote for Coleman over Ciresi. Some Republicans will disaffect from Coleman to Ciresi. And moderates/undecideds will view Ciresi as a positive alternative to Coleman.

You decide what the end result looks like.